Where the smart money is positioned. Commercial hedgers at a 3-year extreme have historically preceded mean-reversion. Updated weekly from CFTC Commitment of Traders · data week of 2026-06-02.
461
signals tracked since 2008
51%
directional hit rate
+0.75%
avg 4-week move (in call dir)
Honest by design: ~51% directional, but positive expectancy — winners outrun losers (net Sharpe 0.84 on the validated commodity panel, after real costs). No 90%-win-rate claims. Every past call and how it aged is part of the record.
Gasoline
Energy
commercials at 1th percentile · commercials net-short extreme
Bullish
Crude Oil
Energy
commercials at 99th percentile · commercials net-long extreme
Bearish
Copper
Metals
commercials at 3th percentile · commercials net-short extreme
Bullish
Natural Gas
Energy
commercials at 88th percentile · mid-range
Neutral
Gold
Metals
commercials at 79th percentile · mid-range
Neutral
Silver
Metals
commercials at 78th percentile · mid-range
Neutral
Platinum
Metals
commercials at 77th percentile · mid-range
Neutral
Palladium
Metals
commercials at 32th percentile · mid-range
Neutral
Heating Oil
Energy
commercials at 44th percentile · mid-range
Neutral
Method. For each market we take the commercial (producer/merchant) net position from the CFTC Disaggregated report, normalize by open interest, and rank it against its trailing 3 years. Below the 10th percentile (commercials extremely net-short) has historically been bullish; above the 90th, bearish. Validated through a locked 2008–2017 / 2018–2026 train/test gate with real fills.